North American auto development will change the vibration pattern of the worldwide automotive
5 months ago, when GM Chief Operating Officer (COO) Henderson predicted that the real crisis in the United States automobile market will appear in the first half of 2009. 5 months later, the American automobile market turbulence proved him prophetic, even Henderson himself has been pushed to the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) on the seat, ready for GM to avoid the final collapse of one stroke.
March 29, General Motors CEO Wagoner submitted his resignation. The next day, Obama rejected the President of the United States GM and Chrysler's restructuring plan, GM also asked the next 60 days, greater efforts must come up with the restructuring plan, or only seek bankruptcy protection. At the same time, the United States, "three" in another Chrysler, and Fiat have also entered into a global alliance framework agreement.
Now, it can be said that the U.S. auto giant to the final line of life and death, perhaps in two months later, the American car industry will have a significant change. Since spread to the global financial storm at the moment, the world map of motor vehicles has already begun on the loose; With increasing depth of the crisis, the North American market changes subversive clear increasing trend, which will be the pattern of the global auto industry and what the pattern of Products affected? For the development of Chinese automobile industry which Enlightenment? In this interview with the National Information Center for information resource development, Xu Changming, director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute and a researcher Zhang Xin.
There is still hope that the United States Automobile
Some commentators accept as factual that the Government of the United States intervention in general so critical, or will absolutely go under GM. In this consider, Zhang Xin believe, if GM bankruptcy, in detail is not easily due to incompetence to extend to function while the bankruptcy, but the Government, trade unions, administration, employees between the outcomes of a sequence of games. But mechanically, a premier general-purpose or, in specific in the new power and hydrogen fuel expertise has benefits, the present need to start a new power, electric driven vehicles in transition.
Even though the paddock of electrical vehicles at GM to start beforehand, and the formation of a more highly developed practical procedure, but because before the monetary critical purpose of the conventional American motor vehicle sales have been unwavering, there will be no dash to the endorsement of universal electrical vehicles. Zhang Xin consider should snatch this possibility now.
Development through universal familiarity, Xu Chang-ming in addition trusts that the United States should step up for vitality costs, monetary types of development, the future oil costs will carry on to enhance, the United States "tall wide" dead end mode of development of the models.
The worldwide automobile development or change the pattern of
Xu Changming think, regardless of whether or not GM will change, the pattern of the global automotive industry, great changes will certainly have to happen. Since any major economic crisis will have significant ramifications, and the United States and Japan will crack down on large enterprises.
The North American market has shrunk considerably, the large-scale accept the brunt of the battle against the United States are localized vehicle prices. At the identical time, because North America is Japan's most significant aim the globalization market, Japanese vehicle charges are furthermore hard hit.
Prior to this, to Honda, Toyota for the day representing the Department of forms are advised in the financial urgent position in a somewhat advantageous place, but the present position, because the total North American market fall too much, producing in the general influence can not own a enterprise . Statistics display that sales have been from the United States market in 2007 dropped to 17 million of the 13 million last year, likely only this year come to 9,000,000.
In show up, Xu Changming consider motor vehicle financial gatherings in Europe changed by the quite tiny mass of globalization for instance objective markets, mostly in the development of arising markets, arising markets, the slighter the consequence of fiscal crisis; and Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other high-end brand label in the worldwide quite balanced distribution.
Zhang believes that the development of the automotive industry from the global situation, Sino-Japanese economic crisis at the Department of the development potential of cars are still the strongest. Since, as represented by Toyota, Japanese car prices in the business philosophy, management, product details on the deal to be better than the U.S. and European companies. If the U.S. economy out of the bottom of this year, it will be possible Japanese cars are the biggest winners, but there is no profit if the last "who also can not carry."
Zhang accepts as factual that the financial urgent position, only to sustain the survival of the funds. If sales in appearing markets but it does not convey good comes back, or no meaning. For example, Toyota, Honda and other Japanese vehicle charges in appearing markets furthermore have very good sales, but its profitability and powerful high-end goods, mostly in the North American market. When the 31 per hundred down turn in the U.S. market, Toyota on the decrease of that in appearing markets only, "go traffic" and not productive, the identical will not work.
Behind the prosperity of the Chinese automobile market anxious
Same even though the fiscal critical purpose changed the Chinese automobile market, but because of guideline modifications corrected to have a many possibility for the in the household market. Maintenance payment abolition of plunging oil costs, motor vehicle pay for duty by half, "car to the surrounding territories policies" have augmented highly to the tiny displacement and low-cost type development.
According to Xu Changming analysis, 80 percent belong to their own brand of such models, it changes from a policy perspective, the own brand is beneficial. Xu Chang-ming judge, the next two years are the development of own brands the historical opportunity of the second period. The first opportunity in history are from 2002 to 2007, the total automobile market at an average annual rate of more than 35% growth in own brands to exciting opportunities; this policy are the opportunities at the market as a whole the situation is not good Next, there is obviously conducive to the development of independent brands.
XU Chang said, from the first half of this year, contrasted the position gaze better, because this around of market recovery, do not depend on one well-developed, second-class localities, but mostly by the somewhat in turn around localities are market driven. Start-up of these markets, somewhat longer time span of time will extend, because these finances less influenced and is in a time span of fast development, this market will in the beside future to sustain good grade of development.
However, Xu Chang-ming pointed out that the policy also led to opportunities for our country vehicle will reduce the effectiveness of enterprises, small displacement the rapid growth of low-priced models, but the overall downward trend in profits.
Zhang believes that the current so-called "good", only the "quantity" a manifestation of, but if profits decline, and there is no large amount of further significance. Such an outcome is likely to cause the Government to stimulate the overdraft, the future of sustainable development is a bad solution.
Zhang said that China's auto market is historic possibility for the survival of the fittest, if missed, then the Chinese will evermore be with the motor vehicle standing in the world behind the giants. 2008, China's greatest enterprises, Shanghai Automotive motor vehicle (the goods produced of 1.75 million last year) vehicles can not move into the world apex 10 enterprises, tenth 1,880,000 are goods produced, have tens of thousands of entities of the gap 10.
Zhang believes that China's auto market is still in the "Government of the warlords under the protection of scrimmage." Only by allowing enterprises to optimize the advantages, weaknesses enterprises be eliminated completely, the Chinese can become a really strong car. - 18424
March 29, General Motors CEO Wagoner submitted his resignation. The next day, Obama rejected the President of the United States GM and Chrysler's restructuring plan, GM also asked the next 60 days, greater efforts must come up with the restructuring plan, or only seek bankruptcy protection. At the same time, the United States, "three" in another Chrysler, and Fiat have also entered into a global alliance framework agreement.
Now, it can be said that the U.S. auto giant to the final line of life and death, perhaps in two months later, the American car industry will have a significant change. Since spread to the global financial storm at the moment, the world map of motor vehicles has already begun on the loose; With increasing depth of the crisis, the North American market changes subversive clear increasing trend, which will be the pattern of the global auto industry and what the pattern of Products affected? For the development of Chinese automobile industry which Enlightenment? In this interview with the National Information Center for information resource development, Xu Changming, director of Guotai Junan Securities Research Institute and a researcher Zhang Xin.
There is still hope that the United States Automobile
Some commentators accept as factual that the Government of the United States intervention in general so critical, or will absolutely go under GM. In this consider, Zhang Xin believe, if GM bankruptcy, in detail is not easily due to incompetence to extend to function while the bankruptcy, but the Government, trade unions, administration, employees between the outcomes of a sequence of games. But mechanically, a premier general-purpose or, in specific in the new power and hydrogen fuel expertise has benefits, the present need to start a new power, electric driven vehicles in transition.
Even though the paddock of electrical vehicles at GM to start beforehand, and the formation of a more highly developed practical procedure, but because before the monetary critical purpose of the conventional American motor vehicle sales have been unwavering, there will be no dash to the endorsement of universal electrical vehicles. Zhang Xin consider should snatch this possibility now.
Development through universal familiarity, Xu Chang-ming in addition trusts that the United States should step up for vitality costs, monetary types of development, the future oil costs will carry on to enhance, the United States "tall wide" dead end mode of development of the models.
The worldwide automobile development or change the pattern of
Xu Changming think, regardless of whether or not GM will change, the pattern of the global automotive industry, great changes will certainly have to happen. Since any major economic crisis will have significant ramifications, and the United States and Japan will crack down on large enterprises.
The North American market has shrunk considerably, the large-scale accept the brunt of the battle against the United States are localized vehicle prices. At the identical time, because North America is Japan's most significant aim the globalization market, Japanese vehicle charges are furthermore hard hit.
Prior to this, to Honda, Toyota for the day representing the Department of forms are advised in the financial urgent position in a somewhat advantageous place, but the present position, because the total North American market fall too much, producing in the general influence can not own a enterprise . Statistics display that sales have been from the United States market in 2007 dropped to 17 million of the 13 million last year, likely only this year come to 9,000,000.
In show up, Xu Changming consider motor vehicle financial gatherings in Europe changed by the quite tiny mass of globalization for instance objective markets, mostly in the development of arising markets, arising markets, the slighter the consequence of fiscal crisis; and Mercedes-Benz, BMW and other high-end brand label in the worldwide quite balanced distribution.
Zhang believes that the development of the automotive industry from the global situation, Sino-Japanese economic crisis at the Department of the development potential of cars are still the strongest. Since, as represented by Toyota, Japanese car prices in the business philosophy, management, product details on the deal to be better than the U.S. and European companies. If the U.S. economy out of the bottom of this year, it will be possible Japanese cars are the biggest winners, but there is no profit if the last "who also can not carry."
Zhang accepts as factual that the financial urgent position, only to sustain the survival of the funds. If sales in appearing markets but it does not convey good comes back, or no meaning. For example, Toyota, Honda and other Japanese vehicle charges in appearing markets furthermore have very good sales, but its profitability and powerful high-end goods, mostly in the North American market. When the 31 per hundred down turn in the U.S. market, Toyota on the decrease of that in appearing markets only, "go traffic" and not productive, the identical will not work.
Behind the prosperity of the Chinese automobile market anxious
Same even though the fiscal critical purpose changed the Chinese automobile market, but because of guideline modifications corrected to have a many possibility for the in the household market. Maintenance payment abolition of plunging oil costs, motor vehicle pay for duty by half, "car to the surrounding territories policies" have augmented highly to the tiny displacement and low-cost type development.
According to Xu Changming analysis, 80 percent belong to their own brand of such models, it changes from a policy perspective, the own brand is beneficial. Xu Chang-ming judge, the next two years are the development of own brands the historical opportunity of the second period. The first opportunity in history are from 2002 to 2007, the total automobile market at an average annual rate of more than 35% growth in own brands to exciting opportunities; this policy are the opportunities at the market as a whole the situation is not good Next, there is obviously conducive to the development of independent brands.
XU Chang said, from the first half of this year, contrasted the position gaze better, because this around of market recovery, do not depend on one well-developed, second-class localities, but mostly by the somewhat in turn around localities are market driven. Start-up of these markets, somewhat longer time span of time will extend, because these finances less influenced and is in a time span of fast development, this market will in the beside future to sustain good grade of development.
However, Xu Chang-ming pointed out that the policy also led to opportunities for our country vehicle will reduce the effectiveness of enterprises, small displacement the rapid growth of low-priced models, but the overall downward trend in profits.
Zhang believes that the current so-called "good", only the "quantity" a manifestation of, but if profits decline, and there is no large amount of further significance. Such an outcome is likely to cause the Government to stimulate the overdraft, the future of sustainable development is a bad solution.
Zhang said that China's auto market is historic possibility for the survival of the fittest, if missed, then the Chinese will evermore be with the motor vehicle standing in the world behind the giants. 2008, China's greatest enterprises, Shanghai Automotive motor vehicle (the goods produced of 1.75 million last year) vehicles can not move into the world apex 10 enterprises, tenth 1,880,000 are goods produced, have tens of thousands of entities of the gap 10.
Zhang believes that China's auto market is still in the "Government of the warlords under the protection of scrimmage." Only by allowing enterprises to optimize the advantages, weaknesses enterprises be eliminated completely, the Chinese can become a really strong car. - 18424
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