By Professional editor working for
himfr.
"The automobile development restructuring and revitalization of planning" recommended in 2009 to China's automobile goods produced and sales efforts more than 10 million, three-year midpoint expansion rate of 10 out of 100, it is needed to realise this objective is not not hard to realise in 2009 is 10% expansion , there still survive some variables. In 2008, the countrywide automobile goods produced and sales to 9,323,600, and 9,363,300, weighed against to the past, advancing goods produced and sales foundation, it is needed to realise 10% for three following years of high expansion, the contest is not small.
Growth bend is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations?
Ministry of data commerce and released facts and numbers display that in March, the National Automobile output 1,095,400, 35.59% development in string of connections (in February than in March), an boost of 5.55%; sales 1,109,800, ring than the 34.10 per hundred development, an boost of 5.01%.
Data in March to the automobile market a shot in the arm: first, sales of more than a quarter of the U.S. market, China has become the world's largest automobile consumer market; Second, a single month to return to one million steps; Third, an increase of the past six months the the highest point.
However, we should furthermore glimpse there are numerous problems: First, sales development exceeded 5% only, and not high; the second, "the world" is only provisional, full-year 2009 may be tough to surpass the United States; the third , since the second half of 2008, an boost of down too, the present development bend is a full U-turn or monthly fluctuations? It is tough to state now; Fourth, fast development in March, the origin determinants of principle propelled, utilisation levy, buy levy slash, and the fuel levy restructure, a sequence of principles for example automobile rural areas performed a function in propping up the market; Fifth, dissimilarities in utilisation structure and conspicuously, in March sales of 772,400 traveller vehicles, up 10.26 per hundred, but sales of financial vehicles was 337,400 yuan, down 5.29%; the sixth, but the boost in automobile output and sales businesses half of the earnings are contradictory development, that there is still the topic of cost command, economic urgent position, the influence on the genuine finances is still deepening.
1-3 months in 2009, automobile goods produced and sales 2,567,600 and 2,678,800, an advance of only 1.91% and 3.88%, lessened from the prevailing inventory, and some types marketed out of the market circumstances, 2009 years to realise the objective of 10% is in all likelihood to realise, but the insist is not tiny and can only be carefully optimistic.
In 2008, the national automobile production and sales dropped year-on-year increase of 16.87 and 15.21 percentage points, in which car sales dropped 20 and 16 percentage points decline in the magnitude of the year, and the first quarter of this year sales growth of only 1. 91% and 3.88%, therefore, whether the warmer automobile market is the key.
Small displacement and the role of motor vehicles can be driven to the countryside long?
As a effect of the use duty, pay for duty slice, tiny displacement motor vehicle sales getting higher, but in addition there are two problems: First, what displacement is the "small displacement", the higher limit of the tiny number of emission? Second, tiny displacement vehicles (even the general fundamental thought of tiny displacement) of the virtual photograph is still sultry, the market share was not high.
"The automobile industry restructuring and revitalization of planning" provides that from 2009 January 20 to December 31, and below 1.6 liters of displacement by 5% of passenger vehicle purchase tax levied; At the same time, the next three years, " displacement of 1.5 liters of the following passenger market share above 40%, of which a small displacement below 1.0 liters car market share above 15% "; car for the countryside is the displacement of 1.3 liters for the following cars.
So, what is "small displacement" countrywide motor vehicle is not very distinctly delineated, the development did not conclusive, 1.6 liters, 1.5 liters, 1.3 liters or 1.0 liters? Policy of ambiguity at a forfeit for some enterprises, financial endeavour in R & D indecisive.
One is 1.0 liters and underneath is the genuine form of little displacement vehicles, if so, this part of the market share forms in detail very little, not very warm but furthermore the future of preferential principles to farther can not only cover this part of model.
The first quarter, SAIC-GM-Wuling sales 246,293, up 34.5 percent, this growth was mainly due to the high consumption tax, and vehicle purchase tax reduction policy support to rural areas, and SAIC-GM-Wuling is based on micro-off based company, is a car to the countryside the most direct beneficiaries of the policy, therefore, SAIC-GM-Wuling, high-growth does not mean that a small displacement of the "golden period" on the up.
1-3 months, sales of cars out the top ten brands are: F3, Excelle, Yuet move, Jetta, QQ, Santana, Elantra, Xiali, Accord, Corolla, which can be seen, 1.3 or the following few models actually.
At present, the auto principle support to country localities are mostly items and micro-light traveller vehicles out; China's auto market is the "golden output" is still 1.6 to 2.4 liters; by the notion of the influence of utilisation, 1.3 liters emissions and deal the following vehicle forms have yet to be upgraded; the influence of the cost itself is still larger than the influence of oil prices. The long period, small-displacement vehicle to the rural areas and the dragging effect of these two localities may not have anticipated less than ideal.
The problem is that the current increase mainly by small displacement with the vehicle driven to the countryside, and this is where the worry.
Decline in export profits decline
In 2008, the national automobile export 684,900, accounting for the domestic automobile production 7.36 percent, an increase of 67.7 percentage points decline; the first quarter of 2009, national automobile export 61,000 yuan, down 62.06 %.
This means that trade items development in down turn in 2008, founded on the year 2009, trade items are expected to fall the more serious.
On the one hand, China's auto exports mainly concentrated in the "Asia" region, the destination than the migraine itself, narrower; On the other hand, in particular by the exchange rate is subject to the impact of financial crisis, the global car market shrinking rapidly, exports decline exacerbated by the current downward trend continues.
In augmentation, though China's auto yield inexpensive, but the worth of word-of-mouth and brand label photograph still wants to be enhanced, and this is a long-term can be effective. To summation up, the circumstances was very sombre automobile exports.
According to China's Automobile Association statistics, this year, 1-2 months, large-scale automobile enterprises the principle enterprise wages of 320.413 billion yuan, up 9.42 out of 100 descent, the yield amounted to 9.879 billion yuan, up 50 out of 100 decline.
2008, 19 key enterprises in the automobile industry (group) on the overall decline in profits, while the faster decline in 2009. Decline in profits for many reasons: On the one hand, 2008 is mainly due to rising costs, continued to decline in 2009 that cost control in enterprises is still a large problem; On the other hand, demonstrate the effects of market further intensified, companies may not want to price the market constant pressure to lower prices, but look at the long-term trend will continue; the most fundamental reason is the limited size of enterprise, productivity is not high, lean production is not achieved and the level of precision management is not high.
Policy to support the face needs to be expanded
2009, a affirmative component for China's auto market more than the contradictory components, the general periods of the brilliant location in the world will extend to be, but is actually opposite large trials, if the next three years, "Paul 10" the need for principle support was farther expanded.
2009, production efficiency and management of even the highest levels of Toyota's profit is expected to have substantially lower, we can see how severe the situation, domestic enterprises are facing "the growth of trouble" and the dual pressures of external challenges.
Policy support is not protectionism, the state procurement is not inclined to own brand is "the purchase of domestic products in a" replica.
First, the car should be further expanded to rural areas, consideration could be given a further 50 million to support the consumption of small displacement cars, regardless of their own brands and joint venture brands, so as to avoid conflicts.
Second, the acquisition of levy could be farther decreased underneath 1.3 liters and the vehicle could be advised tax-free; from 1.3 to 1.8 liters could be advised to 3%; from 1.8 to 2.4 liters could be advised down to 5 %. Will be less levy income, but the automotive buyer and other consumer-driven, conspicuously to encourage the function of household demand.
Third, the abolition of travel tax to clean up a further charge of secondary roads to prevent disguised charges.
Fourth, the road to recover the loan principal and interest of loans after the country, to stop the charges.
Fifth, to speed up the domestic market into line with international oil prices, and to change the current domestic oil price rise in international oil prices rose rapidly, the domestic oil prices in international oil prices gradually dropped down the status quo of the blame.
Sixth, to farther intensify in the new vitality, new technologies in support of efforts to advance the autonomy of the confidential motor vehicle R & D support.
Seventh, automobile trade overseas advanced support, the advantageous vehicle to hoist the trade overseas duty reimbursement rate, the establishment of a extraordinary enticement account to enhance trade overseas services platform.
Eighth, the norms and the advancement of engine vehicle economic development, and befitting relaxation rate vehicle borrowings and down fee, at the identical time the firm administration of individual borrowing records.
IX, regulate second-hand vehicle market, to support new-generation vehicle utilisation, purchase utilised vehicles to elaborate the principle to support the new exterior can be expanded to 20 million vehicles in the locality, but not restricted to redemption of lightweight items, for example micro-off. - 18424
